Despite the economic recession which required downward adjustments to ABI Research’s RFID forecasts for 2009 and 2010, the outlook is good for steady growth through the next five years, according to new market data released by the firm.

“We expect the overall RFID market to exceed $8.25 billion in 2014, or approximately $7.46 billion with automobile immobilization excluded,” predicts practice director Michael Liard. “That would represent a 14% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next five years.”

(Automobile immobilization is the largest single RFID application and has a low growth rate which impacts overall market size, so it is often excluded when examining market trends, Liard notes)

In 2010, the RFID market appears set to reach a size of $4.47 billion (without automobile immobilization), 15% more than the adjusted 2009 figure.

“Not all segments of the RFID market are created equal,” adds Liard. “To 2014, the greatest growth will be found in RTLS (real-time location systems), baggage handling, animal ID and item-level tagging in fashion apparel and retail.”

Other key opportunities include electronic vehicle registration, continued penetration of RFID-enabled e-ID/e-government documents (including health cards), and continued expansion of library systems. Also worth watching: slowed but continued progress in retail/consumer packaged goods supply chain management, and multiple flavors of asset management that leverage RFID technologies, including specialty passive UHF tags.

“Modernizing” applications for RFID will grow more rapidly than their traditional predecessors such as access control, automobile immobilization, electronic toll collection and others that account for slightly more than 61% of the total market today. These applications are expected to grow 6% compounded annually from 2010 through 2014. In contrast, modernizing applications—animal ID, asset management, baggage handling, cargo tracking and security, POS-contactless payment, RTLS, supply chain management and ticketing—are forecast to grow roughly 19% in the same time period.